ANYWAYS… Don’t get me wrong - I loves me some mock drafts. But let’s face it - it’s a crap shoot and nobody knows a fuck about fuckin’ nothin’. But I wonder who knows the least nothing... rrr most nothing... -achm- I wonder who sucks the most at it?!
Well, in the words of that creepy owl from the Tootsie Pop commercials, LEEEET’S FIIIIIND OOOUUUT!
Whoa, what the hell happened? Oh yeah, I was going to write about sports. Anyway, so here’s what I did: I basically just compared where each mocker had each player going with where the player actually went for 2012. And I figured, while I was at it, I could see which positions they sucked the most at projecting. And what teams reached the most for players! And maybe some other nerdy shit!!!
But before I get into the numbers, I think a furious monologue is in order:
Dear mock drafters: GO FUCK YOUR FUCKING SELVES. Seriously. Basically every mock draft I looked at got me progressively more bloodthirsty.
- Kiper/McShay: jesus christ. I get that ESPN has to push it’s Insider subscription bullshit, and that if I can just pull up your mock drafts with a simple Google search, maybe I won’t pay whatever silly, delusional, self-aggrandizing price ESPN demands for Insider, but cccoooommeee ooonnnnn! I challenge any of you to go out and find me Kiper/McShay’s full mock drafts on the internet for free. In the end, I had to grab Bleacher Report’s evaluation of the Kiper/McShay first round mocks. Shit’s wizzeak.
- Basically everybody else: you’re only going to mock the first round? Seriously? There’s 32 picks in the first round. I looked at 13 mock drafts. Thirteen. Collectively, those 13 mocks had a grand total of 45 different names. 20 players were in every single 1st round mock (to the credit of the mockers, those players were all taken in the 1st), and 28 players were in at least 10 of the 13 mocks. My point? YOU’RE NOT DOING ANYTHING!! You’re just regurgitating the names that all your fellow pundits are throwing out there in a slightly different order. That does nothing for me. Oh, you guessed at a few trades in your mock? WOW. Props to Joe Buscaglia and Walterfootball.com for going well beyond the first round and talking about the prospects and the team needs. Their mocks are enjoyable. The rest that I looked at are just the same cookie cutter mainstream media bullshit that I like to think my generation is slowly beginning to reject. Have a little pride and put some actual human thought into the shit you publish for millions.
Soooo, because of how lazy and incompetent all these mockers were, I couldn’t get into the really fun nerdy shit like which teams reached the most for players. But I can give you the best and worst first round mockers of 2012. Here you go:
On that note: MY 2013 MOCK DRAFT!!!
I tell you folks, this mock is the product of DOZENS of minutes of film study. I’ve looked under every rock (rotoworld), barked up every tree (other mocks), considered every angle (even McShay) aaaaand threw this shit together. In true Wild Card fashion the first round includes 86 trades. Just kidding.
1 Chiefs
Luke Joeckel (OT, Texas A&M) – I guess. That’s what everybody’s fuckin saying.
2 Jaguars
*** TRADE *** I think the Jags trade out of this pick. The value here is for a tackle or possibly a QB. The Jags need a QB, but I have a feeling that fresh GM David Caldwell doesn’t want to stake his new career on any of the risky QB prospects this year. He can give Gabbert his last chance and then get his guy next year. Since the Lions desperately need an OT, they find a trade partner.
LIONS (from Jax)
Lane Johnson (OT, Oklahoma) – The Lions are dependent on airing it out, and an extra fraction of a second for Mr. Calvin Johnson to get open and Mr. Matthew Stafford to toss it can be all the difference. Johnson is the quicker, better pass protector between the remaining of the top-2 OTs. Eric Fisher is great too, but the Lions will be worried about his pass protection skills after only starting 3 games on the left. So they make sure they get their guy in Johnson.
3 Raiders
Dion Jordan (DE/OLB Oregon) – Raiders Coordinator Jason Tarver is really a 3-4 guy and I would think he’d like to make the switch. Jordan is perfect as a 3-4 OLB. Fast, nasty, and a little too small to play DE. The pick could also be Shariff Floyd here, but I think that would indicate more 4-3 looks.
4 Eagles
Geno Smith (QB, West Virgina) – I didn’t want to do this, but it just makes too much sense. Geno will give Chip Kelly the ability to do whatever he wants on offense. Kelly has to like that Geno comes from a fast paced, dynamic offense, so he doesn’t have to worry that he won’t grasp the system. I’m sure Chip thinks he can win with Vick too, but with Geno falling into his lap, why not?
5 Jaguars (from Lions)
Dee Milliner (CB, Bama) – Hooooly balls do the Jags need help at CB. Their current #1 is Alan Ball. He used to play for the Cowboys I guess. Hope you like Florida, Dee.
6 Browns
** TRADE ** The Browns are in a good spot to trade, and they’re a bit short on picks (they lost their 2nd rounder grabbing Josh Gordon). Eric Fisher is still on the board, as are QBs not named Geno and WRs that are named Tavon. The guards are on the board too. I just have to be thinking the phone is ringing off the hook. But Cleveland definitely needs to add some talent, so how far back are they willing to fall? They could use players at QB, OG, WR, CB.
CHARGERS (from Browns)
Eric Fisher (OT, Central Michigan) – The Chargers are desperate to help Rivers. Afraid that Arizona takes the best OT left, the Chargers pounce.
7 Cardinals
Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) – Bruce Arians grabs a playmaker for Carson Palmer, and a nice complement to the timeless Fitzgerald.
8 Bills
Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse) – When the Bills hired Marrone, I actually figured Nassib was even less likely than before. I mean, it’s a big risk for Marrone, right? If he starts Nassib, and Nassib doesn’t pan out it’s going to look like a really bad case of cronyism. But, in the end, I just think Nassib is the best QB available. And I think he’s pretty damn good, too. After watching the kid, he just looks like an NFL quarterback. You see the ball snap off his arm, he zips it into tight windows, looks off safeties, and has GREAT awareness in the pocket. This is going to be the pick and I’m fuckin excited about it. Now, could they possibly wait and trade back into the first or some shit? Yea. Maybe. But keep a few things in mind: (a) Nix’s track record: he’s missed on too many QBs by biding his time, even though he knows you have to reach for them. (b) The pressure’s on. The fan base is simply not going to accept coming out of this draft without a top QB prospect. (c) Teams that draft between the Bills at #8 and the Bills at #41: Jets thrice, Vikings twice, Titans twice, Philly, Arizona, and Jacksonville. That’s 10 times they’d have to pray that Nassib isn’t taken. And who knows if one of those teams isn’t thinking about hopping back into the 1st round themselves?
Now for the record, I think Nassib and Barkley are neck and neck. I could see the Bills rolling the dice a little bit and trading back, but not too far. In the end, I think Nix just says “fuck it” and pulls the trigger. Oh, and stop it with the EJ Manuel shit. Not gonna happen. The kid just doesn’t throw with an NFL velocity. He’s a touch passer. The windows close a lot faster in the Bigs, and Manuel’s going to have to a lot of work to do to adapt.
Here’s a nice cut-up of Nassib vs. USC. Take a look at the zip on balls, the tough throws he hits, and his pocket awareness.
Barkevious Mingo (DE/OLB, LSU) - Jets could go a lot of different ways with this pick. I think they take whoever they think is the best defensive player on the board. I hear they like Mingo, idk.
10 Titans
Chance Warmack (OG, Bama) - Titans gotta be pretty psyched to grab one of the highest rated players in the draft at a position they need. Shariff Floyd and Star lalalolo or whatever his fuckin name is is also on the board, and they could go in that direction too.
11 Browns (from Chargers)
Kenny Vacarro (S, Texas) – Browns make a great fuckin move bringing in one of my #draftdarlings – the hard hitting, fly all over the field Longhorn. Seriously. You have to check out this hit:
12 Dolphins
DJ Fluker (OT, Bama) – After busting their nut in free agency, Dolphings miss out on aaaalll this wonderful D-line talent falling right into their lap to take a position of need. One of my fav things about this mock is that the Dolphins fail to trade up to get one of the top 3 tackles, and also fail to get Milliner. –squish-
13 Jets (from Bucs in Revis trade)
Shariff Floyd (DT, Florida) – Floyd falls all the way to the Jets and Rex jiggles his fat as he runs laps around their draft room. Call it a hunch but I feel like Rex feels the only way to save his job is to return his defense to its former glory. I actually think Mingo and Floyd are a touch over rated, but still really nice players. Jets get better on D for sure.
Oh, and obligatory QB mention: they can’t take another USC QB even if they wanted to. It’s NYC – they’ll stone the Jets brass and dump their bodies in Jersey like the good ol’ days.
14 Panthers
Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State) – Love this damn pick. It’s a bit risky with Tank coming off the ACL, but the kid put up insane numbers before getting hurt, and he’s a JuCo kid, so his ceiling is probably high. He’s fun to watch, he’s fierce, high motor, and sheds blocks. I see some Bruce in him:
Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) – A nose tackle falls right into their lap in the middle of the first round to help them switch to the 3-4. Does that term even mean anything anymore? “Well, really we’ll show you a lot of looks and the way the league’s goin, we’ll spend a lot of time in the nickel…”
16 Rams
Jonathan Cooper (OG, UNC) – Rams need a guard and I hear this guy’s good. Wow half way through the first and I’m already getting lazy.
17 Steelers
Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia) – Son of a bitch. Why do the same teams always get these great players that fit their scheme and attitude perfectly to fall right into their damn lap? Jones is nasty and physical and he’s got Steeler written all over him. –sigh-
18 Cowboys
DJ Swearinger (S, South Carolina) – Cowboys really need a safety. Or even two.
19 Giants
Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) – Giants take a gamble and take the LB with the most upside despite the off-field concerns.
20 Bears
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) – weapons for Cutler.
21 Bengals
Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) – Eifert:Gresham::Gronk:Hernandez. Ok, not exactly. But you get the point – they want two fuckin tight ends. And it happens to play well to Ser Dalton’s strengths.
22 Rams (from Redskins)
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) – Whatevs yo – told ya we’d get our guy.
23 Vikings
Manti Te’o (LB, Southern Fupatwat State) – hey, you make up girls, I make up whole colleges pal. You’re not a fightin irish I know that much - no Irish man ever weaped over a fake woman. And yeah its Fupatwat. Not Fupa Twat. That’s gross.
24 Colts
Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) – Colts grab the highest upside D prospect left.
25 Vikings (from Seahawks)
Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) – Now they just gotta find another DT named Richardson to replace the last remaining Williams…
26 Packers
*** TRADE *** Packers get the call from SF and decide to wait a little to see what shakes out and get a couple of picks.
49ers (from Packers)
Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) – Niners grab a guy to groom underneath Justin Smith. Similar player too, I think.
27 Texans
Keenan Allen (WR, Cal) – or some other wide receiver they like.
28 Broncos
Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) – Damn that’s a lot of Seminoles… said some white guy in the 18th century before getting fucking impaled with a spear. Oh, but the Broncos? Yeah, you remember how their season ended, right? They take a CB. The CB’s appear to be slipping, in this, my mock draft, at 1:30 AM. And I likey. Cuz the Bills needy CBs.
29 Patriots
*** TRADE *** Well, you know Bellycheck. And you know, one of the things I hate most about him is the last name really provides limited options for word play. I mean, even Belicheat was pretty weak.
Cardinals (From Patriots)
Matt Barkley (QB, USC) – afraid that the Jaguars grab him, the Cards hop in front and really get a steal. As I said, I think Barkley and Nassib are both pretty good, and worthy of 1st rounders.
30 Falcons
Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) – Falcons need a corner. I dunno, maybe its this guy?
31 Packers (from 49ers)
Larry Warford (OG, Kentucky) – Aaron Rodgers will make plays no matter who he’s throwing to. He just needs to stay off his back.
32 Ravens
John Cyprien (S, Florida Int’l) – Oh whadd’ya know? The Super Bowl champs need a safety and one falls right into their lap at 32. Unreal.
ROUND 2
1 (33) Jaguars
Menelik Watson (OT, Florida State) – Jags miss out on Barkley but shrug and grab a Tackle.
2 (34) 49ers (from Chiefs)
Jesse Williams (DT, Bama) – Niners have the flexibility to just stick to their board and grab the best player available. They can always use size on D.
3 (35) Eagles
Datone Jones (DE, UCLA) – Eagles also need an OT, but not particularly enamoured with anyone on the board, they grab a guy in the 3-4 DE prototype.
4 (36) Lions
***TRADE*** The niners offer a deal the lions cant refuse, since they had to give up their 3rd rounder to move up and also don’t have a 4th. They get SF’s late 2nd and late 3rd rounders in exchange.
Niners (From Lions)
Quinton Patton (WR, LA Tech) – Sensing a possible run on wideouts, the Niners use their bevvy of picks to move up and grab the guy they like most. My hunch is they’d like a guy who’s balanced. Harbaugh still likes to run the football, and knows the value of a guy with the size to throw blocks. From what I’ve read, this guy sounds to me a bit like Hines Ward – a bit short, but feisty and well-built. Oh, and I guess he catches the ball well too.
5 (37) Bengals (from Raiders)
Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise St) – Bengals grab a corner to hopefully add to an increasingly stout secondary.
6 (38) Patriots (from Cardinals)
Robert Woods (WR, USC) – blah. I like Woods. He goes to Pats.
7 Browns (exercised pick in Supplemental Draft)
8 (39) Jets
Eddie Lacy (RB, Bama) – How they went to war with Shonn Greene for so long is utterly beyond me.
9 (40) Titans
Arthur Brown (LB, K-State) – Titans could use an upgrade for their run D. The high-rated LB could be perfect.
10 (41) Bills
** TRADE ** Buddy wants more picks and he gets a call from his pals in San Diego. They get a 5th out of the deal. I even checked the holy trade value chart guys – it adds up like fuckin perfect. I’m sure the Bills are tempted to take Ertz themselves in this scenario, but with desperate needs at CB and WR, Buddy elects to get some more picks.
Chargers (From Bills)
Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) – Chargers need playmakers for Rivers. They grab the California tight end everybody really likes, scared that BUF, MIA, TB or CAR would take him. They could take a WR but they have proven to suck at that. So they grab a buy to play opposite Gates and eventually replace him.
11 (42) Dolphins
Johnthan Banks (CB, Miss St)
12 (43) Buccaneers
Alex Okafor (DE, Texas) – Desperately need a pass rush. Good pass rusher.
13 (44) Panthers
Justin Hunter (WR, Tenn) – Nice big target for Cam
14 Saints (forfeited)
15 (45) Bills (from Chargers) –
Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor) whew. I’m sure Bills liked Wood and Hunter and Patterson, and are probably a bit disappointed at the run on corners, but they still get a guy I think you have to like. Even though the Bills didn’t host Williams for a visit, I feel like maybe they felt comfortable with him anyway since his production was so good even after RGIII left. Bills get the type of receiver Buddy has said he’s looking for – the go up and get it open when he’s not type.
Eric Reid (S, LSU) – Rams desperately need one, and the 2nd best one falls into their lap.
17 (47) Cowboys
DaMontre Moore (DE/OLB, Texas A&M) – Cowboys get the sliding hybrid to help their front 7.
18 (48) Steelers
Terron Armstead (OT, Ark-Pine Bluff)
19 (49) Giants
DJ Hayden (CB, Houston)
20 (50) Bears
Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) - possible replacement for urlacher falls right to them.
21 (51) Redskins
Margus Hunt (DE, SMU) - Shanny grabs the crazy athlete to help his D. Somewhere.
22 (52) Vikings
Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M) - and now they shall grab a WR. A Fast one.
23 (53) Bengals
Justin Pugh (OT, Syracuse)
24 (54) Dolphins (from Colts)
Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin) - Dolphins still need an answer in the backfield.
25 (55) Packers
Kawann Short (DT, Purdue) - Packers take a guy they can throw in there to give Raji a rest or put in an occasional 4-3 looks. Maybe even stick him at 3-4 DE.
26 (56) Seahawks
John Jenkins (DT, Georgia) - Run stuffer baby.
27 (57) Texans
Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego St)
28 (58) Broncos
Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
29 (59) Patriots
Johnathan Hankins (DT, OSU) - Wilfork is no spring chicken.
30 (60) Falcons
Vance McDonald (TE, Rice)
31 (61) Lions (From Niners)
William Gholston (DE, Mich St) - Lions go in-state to fill holes left by Vanden Bosch and Avril.
32 (62) Ravens
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - Hey, I had to close with a bang, right? As Rice gets longer in the tooth, the Ravens will have to limit his snaps. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still young enough, but what it really comes down to is this: the Ravens are the champs, so they can afford to take risks with high potential rewards. Lattimore is a SPECIAL talent - god save defenses if they have to worry about this guy and Rice together.
But here’s where I see the Bills going after this. They really do need help at CB, TE, and OL. If they sign Dansby that plugs the dike at linebacker for another year or two, but I don’t see them taking one unless there’s a guy they really love. They just don’t have enough picks. I think they’ll go some combination of TE, CB, OL in rounds 3&4 and after that I think they might target Tyler Wilson. He’s the type of guy that won’t threaten Nassib (or whoever they take) and could perfectly fit the back-up or long-term project QB role. If Wilson’s gone, they might be willing to take a shot on Bray. But my hunch is at the top of the 3rd, we’ll see a run on QBs, starting with Glennon, and then probably Manuel and Jones.
The time is now T - 35 hours. Wild Card signing off.